Catalogue


The next convergence : the future of economic growth in a multispeed world /
Michael Spence.
edition
1st Picador ed.
imprint
New York : Picador, 2012.
description
xvi, 296 p. : ill. ; 21 cm.
ISBN
9781250007704
format(s)
Book
Holdings
More Details
imprint
New York : Picador, 2012.
isbn
9781250007704
contents note
The global economy and developing countries -- 1950: the start of a remarkable century -- Static views of a changing world -- Postwar changes in the global economy -- The origins of the global economy -- Economic growth -- Common questions about the developing world and the global economy -- Sustained high growth in the developing world -- The high growth developing countries in the post-war period -- The opening of the global economy -- Knowledge transfer and catch-up growth in developing countries -- Global demand and catch-up growth -- The internal dynamics of sustained high growth -- Key internal ingredients of sustained high growth recipes -- Opening up : an issue of speed and sequencing -- The Washington consensus and the role of government -- Managing one's currency in the course of growth -- The middle income transition -- The political, leadership and the governance underpinnings of growth -- Low growth economies in the developing world -- Natural resource wealth and growth -- The challenge for small states -- The adding up problem -- The crisis and its aftermath -- Emerging markets during and after the global crisis -- Instability in the global economy and lessons from the crisis -- Stimulus in the crisis and the need for cooperative behavior -- Rebalancing the global economy and its consequences for growth -- The excess savings challenge in China -- The openness of the global system and the WTO -- Legacies of the crisis : slow growth and sovereign debt issues in advanced countries -- Periodic systemic risk and investment behavior -- The future of growth -- Can the emerging economies sustain high growth? -- China and India -- India's growth, diversification and urbanization -- Brazil's growth reset -- Energy and growth -- The challenge of climate change and developing country growth -- Information technology and the integration of the global economy -- European integration and transnational governance -- Global governance in a multi-speed world -- The G20, the advanced countries and global growth -- Sustaining growth : the second half century of convergence.
catalogue key
9863827
 
Includes bibliographical references (p. [275]-281) and index.
A Look Inside
First Chapter

As the global economy emerged in the post war period, the colonial system disappeared. Old colonies became new countries, some of them with very odd shapes and geographical positions. With no history of self-governance as nation states, they struggled to find their way, economically and in terms of stable governance. India created the world’s largest and most complex democracy—a modern miracle. China turned to communism, adopted the centrally planned model of economic organization, and made very little measurable economic progress for 29 years, but perhaps sowed the seeds of its future rise by educating the vast majority of its people. It dramatically changed direction in 1978 and became the largest (in population) and fastest growing country in the history of the world.

What no one saw clearly was that in the post war period, the economic party that had been running for 200 years in a small subset of the population was about to spread to much of the rest of the world.

The implications of this new convergence are profound and extensive. The costs of things will change. Goods and services that require human time and effort will become relatively more expensive, an inevitable consequence of the eventual decline of low cost underemployed labor in the global economy. Economic forces and incentives will try to make them less expensive by allocating more capital to labor and hence reducing the labor input required. But there are limits to substituting capital for labor, though these limits are moving as technology changes the art of the possible. The abundance of underemployed labor in the world economy has in a sense delayed the arrival of labor saving technology. But this will end in the current century.

Reviews
Review Quotes
"The global economy is too complicated for slogans. Which is one reason why Michael Spence's new book is so refreshing. Spence, who shared the Nobel Prize in economics with Joseph Stiglitz in 2001, has systematically investigated the origins of hypergrowth, the process through which national economies rise from poverty to relative prosperity. In The Next Convergence , he presents a nuanced, highly readable argument on the symbiotic, fraught relationship between today's booming developing markets and the seemingly stagnant developed ones."Daniel Gross, The Washington Post "Cogent, comprehensive, and compelling, his book sorts out the issues, forces and trends driving ''the Inclusiveness Revolution,'' the challenges facing China and India, and the impact on incomes, natural resources, and the environment."Glenn C. Altschuler, The Huffington Post "Michael Spence has written an intelligent, rational and humane book about the great economic event of our era: convergence, or the rapid rise of once poor countries. Anyone seeking a common-sense guide to the transformation under way need look no further . . . Readers will learn a great deal."Martin Wolf, The Financial Times "[A] sharp new book . . . It's rare to hear an economist raise even theoretical doubt over such a deeply ingrained assumption in Western economies." Reuters "Michael Spence has long been pointing out the frictions that interfere with efficient markets . . . [He] has much to offer from a rich career in research, academia and global policymaking." The Economist "Contrary to his book's title, Nobel Prizewinning economist Spence does less prognosticating than one might expect. Indeed, early on he shares a chart showing just how inaccurately economists predicted growth during the 1990s. Instead, he offers a comprehensive summary of the forces at play in today's global economy: removal of trade barriers, the lightning-fast transfer of knowledge from developed to emerging economies, global demand, resources, the role of national and international governments, and the management (or not) of currency rates, among others. Spence's style is pretty flat (Where's John Kenneth Galbraith when we need him?), and he seems to underestimate the looming role of climate change in any economic scenario. Yet his status report could give attentive readers a more empowered role in their own economic future."Alan Moores, Booklist "In recent years, developing countries have become an increasingly important driver of growth in the world economy, bringing about the prospect of a new and multi-polar landscape of the global economy in which the traditional gap in living standards between developing and advanced countries may possibly disappear. Michael Spence has written a succinct and clear analysis of the forces behind this fascinating process that is immensely readable, yet does justice to the complexity of the issues involved. Among the many books written on the new world economy this is one of the most profound. A must-read for everyone interested in the mega-trends shaping the future of the world economy."Justin Yifu Lin, World Bank Senior Vice President and Chief Economist "Rarely does one find a book that is so powerful in its analysis, timely in its topic, relevant in its thinking, and clear in its exposition. Combining his Nobel Prize winning theoretical brilliance and unmatched operational experience, Professor Spence explains clearly complex multi-speed dynamics that are rapidly impacting our world and influencing the current and future well being of billions. This is by far the best book I have seen on today''s historical growth transformations."Mohamed A. El-Erian, CEO and co-CIO of PIMCO, and author of When Markets Collide "The emergence of China is just part of an amazing catching up process going in the world. We all feel this profound change, but few of us have the ability to step back, put it in perspective, analyze the past and guess where the future is taking us. Mike Spence has it, and he delivers. This is serious thinking, on essential issues. I learned a lot from the book, both in the small and in the large; I am sure other readers will as well." Olivier Blanchard, IMF Chief Economist and Class of 1942 Professor Economics, MIT "Among economists, common sense is not that common. Fortunately, Michael Spence has long bucked the trend. In this book he dispenses wisdom on economic growth and much else in accessible, bite-sized chunks. The world's policy makers better listen." Dani Rodrik, Rafiq Hariri Professor of International Political Economy at the John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University "I always knew that Mike Spence was a terrific economist. After reading this book I realize that he also has the rare ability to see the world economyall of it, rich and poorwith clarity, reason and empathy. If you are looking for a lucid, readable, consistent, unprejudiced picture of what has been happening and what might happen next in the world economy, this is an excellent place to find it." Robert Solow, winner of the 1987 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences
"Impressive...Spence offers deep insights with a winning, refreshing humility rarely seen in Nobel Prize-winning economists."-- The Washington Post "An intelligent, rational, an dhumane book about the great economic event of our era...Anyone seeking a commonsense guide to the transformation underway need look no further."-- Financial Times (London) "Cogent, comprehensive, and compelling...Especially trenchant and timely."-- The Huffington Post "Rarely does one find a book that is so powerful in its analysis, timely in its topic, relevant in its thinking, and clear in its exposition.... This is by far the best book I have seen on today's historical growth transformation."--Mohamed A. El-Erian, author of When Markets Collide "Fascinating...Having Spence as a brilliant guide, intimate with both the research and policy frontiers, is a perfect way to get up to speed.... Engaging, intellectual treatments like this one will surely make progress easier."-- Science
"An intelligent, rational, and humane book about the great economic event of our era . . . Anyone seeking a commonsense guide to the transformation underway need look no further." - Financial Times "A comprehensive summary of the forces at play in today's global economy . . . Spence's status report could give attentive readers a more empowered role in their own economic future." - Booklist "I doubt you will find an economist more qualified to weigh in on the changing global economy than Michael Spence . . . [who] offers much needed wisdom on how to sustain economic growth in developing countries. . . . Fascinating." - Business Wire
To find out how to look for other reviews, please see our guides to finding book reviews in the Sciences or Social Sciences and Humanities.
Summaries
Main Description
"Impressive . . . Rather than offer deterministic and hopelessly naive bromides, Spence offers deep insights with a winning, refreshing humility rarely seen in Nobel Prize-winning economists." - Daniel Gross, The Washington Post A Washington Post Notable Nonfiction Book for 2011 With the British Industrial Revolution, part of the world's population started to experience extraordinary economic growth-leading to enormous gaps in wealth and living standards between the industrialized West and the rest of the world. This pattern of divergence reversed after World War II, and now we are midway through a century of high and accelerating growth in the developing world and a new convergence with the advanced countries-a trend that is set to reshape the world. Michael Spence, winner of the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences, explains what happened to cause this dramatic shift in the prospects of the five billion people who live in developing countries. The growth rates are extraordinary, and continuing them presents unprecedented challenges in governance, international coordination, and ecological sustainability. The implications for those living in the advanced countries are great but little understood. Spence clearly and boldly describes what's at stake for all of us as he looks ahead to how the global economy will develop over the next fifty years. The Next Convergence is certain to spark a heated debate how best to move forward in the post-crisis period and reset the balance between national and international economic interests, and short-term fixes and long-term sustainability.
Main Description
A Washington Post Notable Nonfiction Book for 2011 A Strategy + Business Best Business Book for Economics With the British Industrial Revolution, the West began to experience extraordinary economic growth -- leading to enormous gaps in wealth and living standars between the industrialized West and the rest of the world. Yet after World War II, this pattern reversed, launching a trend toward economic convergence that will reshape the world. In The Next Convergence , Nobel Prize-winning economist Michael Spence explains the reasons for this dramatic shift, and its fortune for advanced countries, as well as for the five billion people living in the developing world. Spence boldly and clearly describes what's at stake for all of us over the next fifty years, and the path to both short- and long-term sustainability for all.
Main Description
With the British Industrial Revolution, the West began to experience extraordinary economic growth - leading to enormous gaps in wealth and living standards between the industrialized West and the rest of the world. Yet after World War II, this pattern reversed, launching a trend towards economic convergence that will reshape the world. In The Next Convergence , the Nobel Prize-winning economist Michael Spence explains the reasons for this dramatic shift, and its fortune for advanced countries as well as for the five billion people living in the developing world. Spence boldly and clearly describes what's at stake for all of us over the next fifty years, and the path to both short and long-term sustainability for all.
Main Description
A Washington Post Notable Nonfiction Book for 2011 With the British Industrial Revolution, part of the world's population started to experience extraordinary economic growth - leading to enormous gaps in wealth and living standards between the industrialized West and the rest of the world. This pattern of divergence reversed after World War II, and now we are midway through a century of high and accelerating growth in the developing world and a new convergence with the advanced countries - a trend that is set to reshape the world. Michael Spence, winner of the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences, explains what happened to cause this dramatic shift in the prospects of the five billion people who live in developing countries. The growth rates are extraordinary, and continuing them presents unprecedented challenges in governance, international coordination, and ecological sustainability. The implications for those living in the advanced countries are great but little understood. Spence clearly and boldly describes what's at stake for all of us as he looks ahead to how the global economy will develop over the next fifty years. The Next Convergence is certain to spark a heated debate how best to move forward in the post-crisis period and reset the balance between national and international economic interests, and short-term fixes and long-term sustainability.
Main Description
A Nobel Prize-winning economist tackles the profound challenges to sustainingeconomic growth in advanced and developing countries.
Main Description
A Washington Post Notable Nonfiction Book for 2011 With the British Industrial Revolution, part of the world's population started to experience extraordinary economic growthleading to enormous gaps in wealth and living standards between the industrialized West and the rest of the world. This pattern of divergence reversed after World War II, and now we are midway through a century of high and accelerating growth in the developing world and a new convergence with the advanced countriesa trend that is set to reshape the world. Michael Spence, winner of the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences, explains what happened to cause this dramatic shift in the prospects of the five billion people who live in developing countries. The growth rates are extraordinary, and continuing them presents unprecedented challenges in governance, international coordination, and ecological sustainability. The implications for those living in the advanced countries are great but little understood. Spence clearly and boldly describes what's at stake for all of us as he looks ahead to how the global economy will develop over the next fifty years. The Next Convergence is certain to spark a heated debate how best to move forward in the post-crisis period and reset the balance between national and international economic interests, and short-term fixes and long-term sustainability.
Table of Contents
Prefacep. xi
Introductionp. 3
The Global Economy and Developing Countries
1950: The Start of a Remarkable Centuryp. 11
Static Views of a Changing Worldp. 15
Postwar Changes in the Global Economyp. 18
The Origins of the Global Economyp. 26
Economic Growthp. 31
Common Questions About the Developing World and the Global Economyp. 42
Sustained High Growth in the Developing World
The High-Growth Developing Countries in the Postwar Periodp. 53
The Opening of the Global Economyp. 56
Knowledge Transfer and Catch-up Growth in Developing Countriesp. 58
Global Demand and Catch-up Growthp. 64
The Internal Dynamics of Sustained High Growthp. 69
Key Internal Ingredients of Sustained High-Growth Recipesp. 71
Opening Up: An Issue of Speed and Sequencingp. 89
The Washington Consensus and the Role of Governmentp. 92
Managing One's Currency in the Course of Growthp. 97
The Middle-Income Transitionp. 100
The Political, Leadership, and Governance Underpinnings of Growthp. 104
Low-Growth Economies in the Developing Worldp. 112
Natural Resource Wealth and Growthp. 116
The Challenge for Small Statesp. 120
The Adding-Up Problemp. 122
The Crisis and its Aftermath
Emerging Markets During and After the Global Crisisp. 131
Instability in the Global Economy and Lessons from the Crisisp. 140
Stimulus in the Crisis and the Need for Cooperative Behaviorp. 148
Rebalancing the Global Economy and Its Consequences for Growthp. 150
The Excess-Savings Challenge in Chinap. 161
The Openness of the Global System and the WTOp. 166
Legacies of the Crisis: Slow Growth and Sovereign-Debt Issues in Advanced Countriesp. 169
Periodic Systemic Risk and Investment Behaviorp. 174
The Future of Growth
Can the Emerging Economies Sustain High Growth?p. 187
China and Indiap. 191
China's Structural Challengesp. 194
India's Growth, Diversification, and Urbanizationp. 199
Brazil's Growth Resetp. 203
Energy and Growthp. 206
The Challenge of Climate Change and Developing-Country Growthp. 209
Information Technology and the Integration of the Global Economyp. 222
European Integration and Transnational Governancep. 244
Global Governance in a Multispeed Worldp. 247
The G20, the Advanced Countries, and Global Growthp. 260
Sustaining Growth: The Second Half Century of Convergencep. 270
Notesp. 275
Indexp. 283
Table of Contents provided by Ingram. All Rights Reserved.

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