Scenarios in public policy /
Gill Ringland.
Chichester : Wiley, c2002.
xii, 265 p. : ill. ; 23 cm.
More Details
Chichester : Wiley, c2002.
catalogue key
Includes bibliographical references and index.
A Look Inside
Bowker Data Service Summary
In this text, Gill Ringland focuses specifically on scenarios in public policy. She also looks at the similarities between organizations which have used scenarios successfully - such as the importance of communication via storyline and image.
Main Description
The history of scenario planning is rich and varied. Throughout the ages people have tried to make decisions today by studying the possibilities of tomorrow. When that tomorrow was more predictable and less fraught with uncertainty, those possibilities had a good chance of being the right ones. Now, however, the only given constant in a world of complexity is change itself. In an environment where information technology is driving an information revolution, and where the rules can be rewritten with breathtaking speed, planning can seem more based on luck than foresight. There are methods for coping with unpredictability. The Scenario planning techniques described in this book will help to think about uncertainty in a structured way. Based on Gill Ringland's previous book Scenario Planning: Managing for the Future, this updated and expanded version focuses specifically on scenarios in public policy. The use of scenarios to create a framework for a shared vision of the future, by promoting discussion and building consensus outside a business environment, is examined. Ringland also looks at the similarities between organizations which have used scenarios successfully - such as the importance of communication via storyline and image. Scenarios in Public Policy and its companion, Scenario Planning in Business are both practical paperback books that each expand on specific areas of Scenario Planning. They will appeal to managers looking to learn about and apply a particular aspect of scenario planning. Reviews of Gill Ringland's prevoius work: "Nobody can ignore the future. This book is a must-read for any manager aspiring to put scenarios into practice." Arie de Geus, Former Director of Shell International Petroleum and author of 'The Living Company' "(Gill Ringland) offers us a mechanism by which to bring structure to information technology and other forms of complexity, offering us the vital ability to understand the dynamics of change." Oliver Sparrow, Chatham House Forum
Back Cover Copy
In this practical and comprehensive guide Gill Ringland shows how scenario thinking can help public sector organizations think about uncertainty in a structured way and manage their own future. In use at Royal/Dutch Shell since the 1960s, scenario thinking is now widely accepted as a valuable method for making informed decisions. This book focuses on the use of scenarios for developing public policy, whether by engaging the public or for use within government. Drawing on a wealth of global examples Scenarios in Public Policy will provide managers at all levels with the knowledge, best practice guidelines and a practical toolkit to use scenarios in the public sector. It is worth remembering that everything possible today was at one time impossible, it therefore follows that everything impossible today may at sometime in the future be possible. But, most importantly, in the end the future is not something that happens to us. The future is what we do. This book is for anyone who realizes that the future will no longer replicate the past but is still struggling to come to terms with, and cope with, the uncertainties of the future.
Table of Contents
About the authorp. vii
Acknowledgementsp. ix
Abbreviationsp. xi
Introductionp. 1
Scenarios in Public Policyp. 7
Summaryp. 7
Four scenarios for public education in Seattlep. 11
Rotterdam and Arnhemp. 20
Mission and consequences in Buerenp. 23
Scottish Enterprise's use of scenariosp. 31
Tackling big issues in 24 hoursp. 42
Scenarios for sustainable developmentp. 51
VISIONS scenarios on the future of Europep. 57
Foresight Futures 2001p. 65
Lessons learnedp. 77
Scenarios in the Public Sectorp. 81
Summaryp. 81
US General Services Agency--scenarios for the federal workplacep. 83
Consignia and scenario thinkingp. 94
Scenarios at the dtip. 104
Scenario planning goes to Romep. 111
Decision making in the public sectorp. 124
Lessons learnedp. 132
Making Scenarios Workp. 135
Summaryp. 135
The environment for scenario thinkingp. 137
The stages of a projectp. 145
Getting startedp. 153
Deciding the questionp. 160
Interviews and workshopsp. 167
Scenario creationp. 176
Scenarios to plansp. 185
Linking scenarios into the organizationp. 194
Main pointsp. 200
Scenario Thinkingp. 203
Summaryp. 203
Scenarios and strategyp. 205
Strategy and scenario planning in the public sectorp. 211
Where are we now?p. 217
Forecastsp. 223
Evolutionary models for cultural changep. 230
Comparison of global scenariosp. 242
Where next?p. 250
Conclusionsp. 255
Referencesp. 257
Indexp. 263
Table of Contents provided by Syndetics. All Rights Reserved.

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