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Forecasting financial and economic cycles /
Michael P. Niemira, Philip A. Klein.
imprint
New York : Wiley, c1994.
description
xvi, 526 p. : ill.
ISBN
0471845442
format(s)
Book
Holdings
More Details
added author
imprint
New York : Wiley, c1994.
isbn
0471845442
catalogue key
274595
 
Includes bibliographical references and index.
A Look Inside
Excerpts
Flap Copy
Forecasting Financial and Economic Cycles Our understanding of the nature of economic cycles and their financial impact has deepened considerably since World War II and our ability to forecast key economic turning points has been greatly enhanced through the creation and application of more sophisticated methodologies. Niemira and Klein's Forecasting Financial and Economic Cycles reflects this steady progress, chronicling the development of cyclical theory and the tools used to asses, track, and predict this volatility. More than a history of emerging and competing ideas, however, this vital handbook gives investors, traders, business executives, bankers, policymakers, and economists policymakers, and economists the fundamental information they need to determine the nature and causes of business cycles, trends, seasonal patterns, and other instability, and presents the full range of applied techniques to enable them to more accurately measure, monitor, and forecast these dramatic fluctuations. Forecasting Financial and Economic Cycles describes the classical business cycle as delineated by the National Bureau of Economic Research, as well as the alternative concepts developed by many of the century's most influential thinkers. The book shows the basic similarities and differences between the business and growth cycle, and explains five types of economic cycles-the agricultural, inventory, fixed-investment, building, and Kondratieff cycles-including their essential features and critical reception among economists. The book goes on to examine the variety of theories that have evolved to explain the causes of instability in market-driven economies. Here, coverage ranges from discussion of simple unicausal theories, through the powerful impact of more complex Keynesian concepts, to new classical macroeconomics, which takes its cue from earlier economic theory. With this greater understanding of the forces acting on the economy, readers are prepared for the book's comprehensive treatment of statistical techniques used to measure various trends, cycles, and seasonal patterns, including the steps involved in applying a given method as well as its advantages and limitations. Readers learn how to put together their own composite indicators, which can help them evaluate the complex interactions that drive instability and more accurately forecast turning points in a business cycle. Forecasting Financial and Economic Cycles includes a thorough review of America's economic history over the past century. This detailed look at cycles of different origins and duration highlights important lessons and underscores the need for readers to have a strong knowledge of economic history-in addition to a firm grasp of forecasting techniques-if they are to become adept at pinpointing stages of economic instability. No forecasting system is infallible. But, armed with the theoretical, historical, and applied information provided in Forecasting Financial and Economic Cycles, practitioners in all areas of business and finance can develop the skills and savvy to more consistently anticipate key fluctuations and profit from the knowledge.
Full Text Reviews
Appeared in Choice on 1994-06:
Niemira and Klein's book is part historical, part theoretical, and part a practical guide to applications. They stress careful measurement of economic phenomena as a means of learning about the economy; empirical research, not glitzy statistical technique, is the central theme of their book. The historical background in the first third of the work is a thorough description of the various theories. An extensive table (Table 2.1) classifies all the business cycle theories mentioned. Students of economics will recognize the cast of characters (including Jevons, Mitchell, Burns, Hayek, Schumpter, J.M. Clark, Samuelson, Friedman, Brunner, Meltzer, Laffer, Lucas, Sargent, and Barro.) The second third of the book deals specifically with measurement methods; exploratory data analysis and a number of more sophisticated techniques are also presented. Two fundamental approaches are examined: scouring the data for a particular cycle duration and searching for cycles of varying duration. The final section presents applications. Of particular note are the chapters explaining how to construct a regional index of leading economic indicators and the chapter explaining how to predict turning points in the cycle. Portions of the book require some mathematical and econometric sophistication. Many data tables are included. Graduate; faculty; practitioner. B. P. Keating; University of Notre Dame
Reviews
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Choice, June 1994
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Summaries
Main Description
Gain the knowledge and skills that can help you exploit instability. Forecasting Financial and Economic Cycles No book can help you construct foolproof forecasting systems that will ensure you'll accurately predict economic turning points every time. But with Niemira and Klein's Forecasting Financial and Economic Cycles on hand, you'll be able to significantly strengthen your ability to measure, monitor, and forecast important fluctuations. Part history, it provides you with essential background material on the characteristics and causes of economic volatility. It offers accessible coverage of the classical business cycle, the five basic types of economic cycles as determined by leading economists, and evolving ideas on the forces driving instability-ranging from simple unicausal theories, more complex Keynesian theory, to new classical macroeconomics. In addition, its concise review of America's economic past highlights the lessons that can be learned from the various cycles experienced since shortly before World War II. Part handbook, Forecasting Financial and Economic Cycles presents the full spectrum of statistical techniques used to measure cycles, trends, seasonal patterns, and other vital changes, offering you step-by-step guidance on applying a specific method and detailing its uses and limitations. It goes on to show how you can adapt particular techniques to assess, track, and predict: Industry cycles-including an objective, tailor-made forecasting tool Regional business cycles-including a survey of regional indicators International business cycles-with an international business cycle chronology Inflation cycles-plus "12 little-known facts" about this complex cycle Financial cycles-covering credit, monetary, and interest rate cycles Stock market cycles-with advice on achieving more disciplined trading Based on outstanding scholarship and years of practical experience, Forecasting Financial and Economic Cycles will serve as an invaluable tool for practitioners like you whose decision-making-and profit margin-depend on accurately assessing today's often uncertain economic climate. "Forecasting Financial and Economic Cycles provides a lively survey of the many ways that cyclical economic activity has been dissected and analyzed. With this book, an astute reader may even be able to anticipate the next cyclical turn." -Samuel D. Kahan Chief Economist Fuji Securities, Inc. "The definitive book on the most important and enduring feature of an often mist-bound economic landscape: the business cycle." -Alfred L. Malabre, Jr. Economics Editor The Wall Street Journal "Niemira and Klein cover both the theory of economic cycles and methods for forecasting them. They provide one of the most comprehensive and current reviews of academic studies of economic cycles to be found anywhere." -Anthony F. Herbst Professor of Finance The University of Texas at El Paso "This book succeeds as a comprehensive, balanced, and accessible treatment of fluctuations in economic and financial activity. It should prove useful to all those in industry and finance who wish to understand and analyze the trends and changes in the modern dynamic economy." -Victor Zarnowitz Professor Emeritus of Economics and Finance University of Chicago
Table of Contents
Cycle Types And Theory
The Nature of Economic Cycles
Business Cycle Theory
Measurement Methods
Measurement, Monitoring, and Forecasting Cycles
Economic History
U.S. Business Cycle History
Application Of Cycle Techniques
Industry Cycles
Regional Business Cycles
International Business Cycles
The Inflation Cycle
Financial Cycles
Stock Market Cycles
Conclusion
The Future of the Business Cycle-Alive and Well but Different
Appendices
Notes
Index
Table of Contents provided by Publisher. All Rights Reserved.

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