Catalogue


Climate and social stress : implications for security analysis /
Committee on Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change on Social and Political Stresses, Board on Environmental Change and Society, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education, National Research Council ; John D. Steinbruner, Paul C. Stern, and Jo L. Husbands, editors.
imprint
Washington, D.C. : National Academies Press, 2013.
description
xiv, 238 p. : ill. ; 23 cm
ISBN
0309278562, 9780309278560
format(s)
Book
Holdings
More Details
imprint
Washington, D.C. : National Academies Press, 2013.
isbn
0309278562
9780309278560
contents note
Climate change as a national security concern -- Climate change, vulnerability, and national security : a conceptual framework -- Potentially disruptive climate events -- How climate events can lead to social and political stresses -- Climate events and antional security outcomes -- Methods for assessing national security threats.
abstract
Climate change as a national security concern. -- Climate change, vulnerability and national security: a conceptual framework. -- Potentially disruptive climate events. -- How climate events can lead to social and political stresses. -- Climate events and national security outcomes. -- Methods for assessing national security threats. -- References. -- Appendixes.
In recent years, with the accumulation of scientific evidence indicating that the global climate is moving outside the bounds of past experience and can be expected to put new stresses on societies around the world, the U.S. intelligence and security communities have begun to examine a variety of plausible scenarios through which climate change might pose or alter security risks. As this study developed we focused our efforts in three specific ways. First, we focused on social and political stresses outside the United States because such stresses are the main focus of the intelligence community. Second, we concentrated on security risks that might arise from situations in which climate events (e.g., droughts, heat waves, or storms) have consequences that exceed the capacity of affected countries or populations to cope and respond. This focus led us to exclude, for example, climate events that might directly affect the ability of the U.S. military to conduct its missions or that might contribute directly to international competition or conflict (e.g., over sea lanes or natural resources in the Arctic). We also excluded the security implications of policies that countries might undertake to protect themselves from perceived threats of climate change (e.g., geoengineering to reduce global warming or buying foreign agricultural land to ensure domestic food supplies). These kinds of climate-security connections could prove highly significant and deserve further study and analysis. They could also interact with the connections that are our main focus; for example, an action such as buying foreign agricultural land might go almost unnoticed at first, only creating a crisis when the country where the land is located experiences a crop failure it cannot manage with imports. Third, we concentrated on the relatively near term by emphasizing climate-driven security risks that call for action by the intelligence community within the coming decade either to respond to security threats or to anticipate them. Although these choices of focus helped bound our study, they left it with some notable limitations.
catalogue key
10192624
 
Includes bibliographical references (p. 161-177).
A Look Inside
Summaries
Description for Bookstore
Climate change can reasonably be expected to increase the frequency and intensity of a variety of potentially disruptive environmental events-slowly at first, but then more quickly. It is prudent to expect to be surprised by the way in which these events may cascade, or have far-reaching effects. Over the coming decade, some climate-related events will produce consequences that exceed the capacity of affected societies or global systems to manage; these may have global security implications. Although focused on events outside the United States, Climate and Social Stress: Implications for Security Analysisrecommends a range of research and policy actions to create a whole-of-government approach to increasing understanding of complex and contingent connections between climate and security, and to inform choices about adapting to and reducing vulnerability to climate change.
Long Description
Climate change can reasonably be expected to increase the frequency and intensity of a variety of potentially disruptive environmental events--slowly at first, but then more quickly. It is prudent to expect to be surprised by the way in which these events may cascade, or have far-reaching effects. During the coming decade, certain climate-related events will produce consequences that exceed the capacity of the affected societies or global systems to manage; these may have global security implications. Although focused on events outside the United States, Climate and Social Stress: Implications for Security Analysis recommends a range of research and policy actions to create a whole-of-government approach to increasing understanding of complex and contingent connections between climate and security, and to inform choices about adapting to and reducing vulnerability to climate change.
Table of Contents
Summaryp. 1
Climate Change as a National Security Concernp. 15
Potential Climate-Security Connectionsp. 17
Increasing Risks of Disruptive Climate Eventsp. 21
The Focus of This Studyp. 30
Structure of the Reportp. 33
Climate Change, Vulnerability, and National Security: A Conceptual Frameworkp. 35
Connections Between Climate Events and National Securityp. 36
Implications of the Conceptual Frameworkp. 43
Strategies for Security Analysisp. 48
Potentially Disruptive Climate Eventsp. 53
The Science of Climate Projectionp. 54
Abrupt Climate Changep. 58
Single Extreme Eventsp. 61
Clusters of Extreme Eventsp. 68
Sequences of Eventsp. 70
Global System Shocksp. 71
Surprises Arising from Poorly Resolved Climate Dynamicsp. 72
Conclusions and Recommendationsp. 73
How Climate Events Can Lead to Social and Political Stressesp. 75
Local and Distant Effectsp. 76
Exposuresp. 82
Susceptibility to Harm from Climate Eventsp. 84
Coping, Response, and Recoveryp. 87
Conclusions and Recommendationsp. 91
Climate Events and National Security Outcomesp. 97
Water, Food, and Health Securityp. 98
Humanitarian Crisesp. 111
Disruptive Migrationp. 112
Severe Political Instability and State Failurep. 117
Interstate and Intrastate Conflict and Violencep. 125
Conclusions and Recommendationsp. 134
Methods for Assessing National Security Threatsp. 139
What Should Be Monitored and Whyp. 140
Challenges of Monitoringp. 143
A Strategy for Monitoringp. 153
An Approach to Anticipating Risksp. 158
Referencesp. 161
Appendixes
Committee Member and Staff Biographiesp. 179
Briefings Received by the Committeep. 187
Method for Developing Figure 3-1p. 189
Statistical Methods for Assessing Probabilities of Extreme Eventsp. 193
Foundations for Monitoring Climate-Security Connectionsp. 203
Table of Contents provided by Ingram. All Rights Reserved.

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